Western Reader
In the shadowy world of international conflict, a high-stakes chess game is unfolding between Ukraine and Russia.
The Guardian’s security editor in Kyiv, Dan Sabbagh, reports British sources are tightlipped about the recent meeting at the border. However, whispers from the West suggest a strategic shift following these discussions.
The focus now appears to be on the Zaporizhzhia front, with fresh Ukrainian attacks targeting the city of Tokmak. This move is seen as a stepping stone towards reaching the Sea of Azov, which would effectively sever the land bridge to Crimea.
Yet, this strategy has come at a heavy cost. Since June 4, Ukrainian forces have been embroiled in a bloody counteroffensive, with Russian estimates putting Ukrainian losses at a staggering 57,000 in the counteroffensive and over 400,000 in the entire war.
Mobilization will be announced in Russia on September 24.
A message appeared on the website of the State Council of Adygea about the ban on the departure of men of draft age outside the region without the permission of the military enlistment office. The post was later… pic.twitter.com/q7bl0Yp3Fw
— Lew Anno Suport #Ukraine 24/2-22 (@anno1540) August 21, 2023
The situation has raised alarm bells in the USA and NATO. Top military officials fear that the Ukrainian armed forces may be incapable of breaching Russia’s defensive lines to reach Melitopol and the Sea of Azov, according to Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
This grim assessment underscores the immense challenges facing Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is preparing for a potential new offensive around spring or early summer of 2024, coinciding with the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. However, the prolonged counteroffensive is straining US political support.
Bloomberg reports if the fighting reaches a stalemate over the winter, war fatigue could set in, making it increasingly difficult for Europeans to convince Americans that Ukraine’s problem is also America’s.
Russia, on the other hand, seems prepared for a long haul, with enough ammunition for another year of fighting and new troops being deployed on the front lines.
Despite receiving training and arms from the US and Europe, Kiev has only made tactical advances against the heavily entrenched Russian forces. The onset of wet and cold weather in autumn further narrows the window for significant actions.
In Kyiv, Ukraine, during the distribution of draft notices, a military commissariat employee threatened a man with a gun. The conscription situation is indeed becoming tense. pic.twitter.com/iPaVDTMIZH
— Voice of Europe 🌍 (@V_of_Europe) August 22, 2023
As the fighting season in Ukraine nears its end, Western military leaders are urging their Ukrainian counterparts to prepare for 2024.
The new strategy will prioritize the formation and deployment of new human reserves and the development of combat-ready aviation units, in cooperation with the Pentagon and NATO.
In a promising development, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands have pledged to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced Ukraine will receive at least 61 F-16 aircraft, enough to create four squadrons.
However, only five jets are scheduled to arrive by the end of this year.
A recent crisis meeting at the Polish-Ukrainian border, attended by NATO military chief US Gen Christopher Cavoli, British Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, and Ukrainian chief military commander Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, aimed to reset Ukraine’s military strategy.
The focus was on the slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, battle plans for the harsh winter ahead, and long-term strategy as the war grinds into 2024.
As the chessboard is set for the next round of this geopolitical game, the world watches with bated breath. The stakes are high and the outcome uncertain.
This article appeared in The Patriot Brief and has been published here with permission.
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