Research Suggests that 10%-27% of Non-Citizens May Be Illegally Registered to Vote

A study conducted by Just Facts has raised concerns about the legitimacy of U.S. elections by suggesting that as much as 27% of non-citizens could be unlawfully registered to vote. The research, led by James Agresti, indicates that millions of non-citizens may be impacting American elections, potentially influencing outcomes at both the congressional and presidential levels. Based on the study’s findings, the U.S. Census identified over 19 million adult non-citizens in 2022, implying that around 2 to 5 million of them might be registered to vote.

Agresti’s study expands upon previous research from a 2014 Electoral Studies paper that examined data on non-citizen voter registration. The latest research employs improved methodologies to offer what Agresti argues are more precise estimates of illegal voter registration among non-citizens. The study suggests that while 10% to 27% of non-citizens are registered to vote, about half of them actually participate in federal elections. This implies that roughly 5% to 13% of non-citizens could potentially engage in the 2024 elections unless stricter voter verification measures are put in place.

If it’s already illegal for non-citizens to vote in our election that why do you have such an issue with people proving they are citizens at the polls?

Shut it down. Screw it pic.twitter.com/uAsBM6QWzD

— Shipwreck (@shipwreckshow) September 18, 2024

However, critics have challenged these assertions, highlighting flaws in the methodology and underlying data. Experts like Jesse Richman, a political scientist whose prior work was referenced by Agresti, have distanced themselves from the higher estimations. Richman admits that while there are instances of non-citizen voter registration, it is not as widespread as suggested by Agresti. He contends that the original 10% to 27% estimate is likely an exaggeration, with a more realistic figure being closer to 1%.

One major obstacle in confirming non-citizen voter registration is the absence of a robust system to cross-verify citizenship status. Though federal law mandates U.S. citizenship to register for federal elections, the enforcement varies significantly among states. In many instances, individuals only need to declare their citizenship without presenting evidence. This creates opportunities for potential errors or fraudulent registrations, which critics argue could be exploited, particularly in states with less stringent voter registration prerequisites.

And here is,

the State of Texas,

+ 6,500 illegal aliens caught registering to vote and nearly 2,000 caught voting. This is Texas, can you imagine November 3, 2020?

Rigged voter rolls + Illegal Aliens + Mail-In-Ballots + Zuckerberg + NGO’s + Mules = November 3, 2020 Election,… https://t.co/qX3kCpDWre pic.twitter.com/HlqgXq48Dk

— 🇺🇸RealRobert🇺🇸 (@Real_RobN) September 14, 2024

Conservative organizations like True the Vote have raised alarms about this issue, pointing to deficiencies in federal laws and the lack of rigorous documentation requirements as significant contributors to the problem. They argue that recent federal initiatives, such as the Biden administration’s Executive Order 14019 encouraging voter registration, heighten the risks of unlawful voting. These critics assert that current policies enable the registration of non-citizens and other ineligible groups without effective oversight.

On the other hand, proponents of existing laws argue that there is no widespread evidence of large-scale non-citizen voting. Entities like Snopes and various election integrity experts have criticized Agresti’s conclusions as based on outdated or biased data. They stress that previous surveys and studies have discovered minimal instances of non-citizens being improperly registered to vote, and while the issue is real, it is not as widespread as claimed by some. For example, the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), a prominent survey often referenced in these debates, was not specifically designed to analyze non-citizens, raising doubts about the reliability of inferences drawn from this dataset.

Despite these disputes, the matter of non-citizen voter registration continues to be a focal point in the ongoing dialogue about election security. Republican legislators have proposed bills that would mandate proof of citizenship for federal election registration. Advocates of these measures argue that stricter laws are essential to protect the electoral process, while opponents fear that such laws could disenfranchise eligible voters, particularly minority groups.

As the 2024 elections draw near, the issue of non-citizen voter registration is likely to remain a contentious issue. The validity of the figures presented by Agresti and other conservative researchers under scrutiny will be pivotal in shaping election integrity reforms in the years ahead.