Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors Are Now War Zones

Every nuclear reactor operates by carefully maintaining a delicate balance. Fuel rods are kept at a specific distance from each other to generate the necessary heat for electricity production. Constant monitoring is crucial to prevent overheating, which could result in the fuel melting. This process requires ongoing cooling and a highly trained staff. To ensure safety, reactors are encased in a steel shell and a thick layer of concrete. These protective measures are designed to withstand various threats, including projectile impacts and plane crashes. Additionally, they are intended to contain the heat produced during a fuel meltdown. The Chernobyl reactors lacked this level of protection, leading to the release of radioactive material into the atmosphere.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Power Reactor Information System database, Ukraine has four operational nuclear facilities, including Zaporizhzhia. Nuclear power plant experts have raised concerns about two potential scenarios where these facilities could become engulfed in war zones:

1. While reactors themselves are robust, the cooling pools containing used fuel rods, which are still hot, are not. If a cooling pond sustains damage and ceases to function, the water inside will eventually evaporate, causing the fuel rods to catch fire. This situation can result in the release of radioactive particles into the air, a significant concern observed during the Fukushima disaster.

2. If a reactor shuts down, loses access to external power, and subsequently loses its backup power, the coolant inside the reactor stops circulating. As a result, the fuel inside catches fire, generating hydrogen gas. As demonstrated in the Fukushima disaster, this can be highly dangerous. Hydrogen explosions blew off the roofs of reactor buildings, leading to the release of radioactive gas and necessitating massive evacuations.

Melissa Hanham, an open-source intelligence specialist affiliated with the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, has outlined three potential explanations for the recent attack on Zaporizhzhia by Russian forces:

1. In the chaos of war, the Russian invasion force is taking control of every facility in its path, including the nuclear power plant. The firefight at the plant may have been a consequence of this approach.

2. The attack on Zaporizhzhia could be a deliberate effort to seize control of a high-risk site, similar to the takeover of Chernobyl at the beginning of the invasion. The International Atomic Energy Agency has expressed concerns about the lack of relief staffing at Chernobyl for monitoring operations.

3. Ukrainian officials have suggested another explanation—that Russia intends to control and disrupt the country’s electricity supply as part of its invasion plan. Hanham adds that if Zaporizhzhia is under Russian control, it would be reasonable to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to have access and regular communication with the individuals overseeing the facility, presumably Ukrainian staff.